We continue to monitor scheduled capacity from airlines around the world. The industry added almost 2 million additional seats for the current week compared to the previous one. The global size of the industry now stands at 56.1 million seats. Still, there is a long way to full recovery, and we can see some signs that the recovery may be gradual.

This week Europe continues to stay in the top seat while North America sees the “stop” sign on the highway to growth.

We continue to monitor the data from the ch-aviation capacities module.

Asia, which was the first region to bring optimism to the industry, kept growing again this week. The airlines added 5% more seats compared to the week before and the region now has 28.6 million seats scheduled to depart between July 20-26. Interestingly, Asia now represents more than half the size of the industry: 28.6 million of 56.1 million seats are scheduled in Asian airports. “China Southern Airlines” and “China Eastern Airlines” have almost 5 million seats combined, what is 17% of the total Asian share. Unsurprisingly, the domestic markets are dominating now: 25.6 million of 28.6 million seats are on domestic flights in Asia (mainly driven by China’s domestic market).

The second-largest region in the industry stays almost flat for the last two weeks. After steep growth for Independence Day-related travel in the USA, capacity growth flattened in North America. The industry added just 0.5% seats compared to a week earlier and now stands at 13.6 million seats. Again, it is mainly driven by the domestic travel – USA domestic market takes 10.9 million seats, with Mexico at 0.8 million and Canada 0.4 million.

Europe continues to lead industry growth – airlines added an additional 4% of seat capacity for the current week totaling 11.1 million. Compared to Asia or North America there is not much domestic travel happening here and 7.5 million seats are scheduled for international flights. Only Russia sees a more significant impact of domestic flying, with 1.2 million domestic seats scheduled while Italy has 0.5 million, and Spain and France with 0.4 million each.

South America is still waiting to start recovery. The industry was close to 1 million seats in South America in the beginning of July, but now is stagnating at around 900,000. More than half of the market now is domestic flying in Brazil, with almost 600,000 seats scheduled there.

Africa is also still looking to gain momentum for the market growth. Airlines slightly dropped the number of seats scheduled from African airports and now the market is at around 1.1 million scheduled seats. Also, we have to keep in mind that 275,000 of those seats are scheduled to depart Canary Islands to domestic Spain and Europe-bound destinations, so mainland Africa is an even smaller market now with 3 North African countries being the largest: Egypt has 126,000 seats scheduled, followed by Morocco (104,000) and Tunisia (75,000).

The recovery in Oceania also stopped and even shows signs of a downward trend again. Airlines have reduced the number of scheduled seats for the last two weeks in a row. The industry now stands at 726,000 seats, with 635,000 of those seats scheduled on domestic flights (330,000 in Australia and 209,000 in New Zealand). International travel from this region stays extremely limited.

We will continue to monitor the situation on capacities and will post on our blog. Follow us here and follow our #chaviationcovid19updates on Linkedin.

55% of fleets grounded in the beginning of April.
59% of fleets grounded at the end of April.
57% of fleets grounded at the beginning May.
55% of fleets grounded the end of May.
54% of fleets grounded in the beginning of June.
51% of fleets grounded in the end of June.
46% of fleets grounded in the beginning of July.
40% of fleets grounded at the end of July.

Airlines continue taking aircraft out of storage. At the lowest point in the crisis we saw 59% of fleets grounded – airlines sent 19,000 aircraft to storage or maintenance. Now airlines have 40% of aircraft in non-active mode, with 13,500 aircraft now in grounded fleets.

Aircraft re-activation intensified in July when more airlines resumed flying after full or part suspensions of operations.

Europe continues to lead the recovery as airlines re-activated another 1,000 aircraft in the first half of July. Europe now has 45% of fleets on the ground. While still less than the world’s average, the pace of re-activation is the biggest since June.

Asia and North America continue to lead the regions with the fewest groundings compared to other parts of the world. Airlines from both these regions have 35% of the fleets on the ground in the second half of July. Re-activations in Asia are now at a slower pace, as airlines brought back 238 aircraft during the last two weeks while North American carriers are now using 555 aircraft more than the previous period.

Smaller regions saw slight improvements during the last period, with airlines reactivating 63 aircraft in Africa, 38 aircraft in South America and 34 aircraft in Oceania.

We understand grounded fleets do not fully represent airline activity as airlines are able to variate between different utilization levels for specific aircraft.

Active Total %, grounded
Africa 633 1,550 59%
Asia 7,366 11,376 35%
Europe 4,558 8,264 45%
North America 6,601 10,136 35%
Oceania 556 956 42%
South America 541 1,444 63%

We also looked at the TOP10 countries with the highest percentage of active fleets. We excluded countries with less than 10 active aircraft. We now see nine countries operating with more than 80% of active fleets: Hungary, Seychelles, Croatia, Luxembourg, China, the Netherlands, Viet Nam, Taiwan and New Zealand. A month and a half ago only Seychelles and China reached this milestone. Seychelles fell behind due to growth from Hungary’s largest registered airline, Wizz Air.

Active Total %, active
Hungary 129 136 95%
Seychelles 11 12 92%
Croatia 14 16 88%
Luxembourg 51 59 86%
China 3,443 4,170 83%
Netherlands (the) 197 239 82%
Viet Nam 197 239 82%
Taiwan (Province of China) 192 234 82%
New Zealand 106 132 80%
New Caledonia 11 14 79%

We also looked at the TOP10 countries with the highest percentage of grounded fleets by airline.

There is no big change in this list compared to two weeks ago. Panama and Venezuela continue to lead this list. Austria fell off this list when the largest airlines in the country resumed their operations. The leading carrier of Panama, “COPA Airlines,” is keeping its operations suspended due to government regulations

Active Total %, active
Panama 11 125 9%
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 10 89 11%
Argentina 20 121 17%
Maldives 16 93 17%
Colombia 50 228 22%
Nigeria 30 134 22%
Libya 15 61 25%
Morocco 18 73 25%
Israel 20 80 25%
South Africa 63 240 26%

We use ch-aviation fleets advanced data for this analysis. Our fleet team works to deliver the latest updates on airline commercial fleets globally.

We continue to monitor scheduled capacity from airlines around the world. The industry’s recovery continues to show signs of growth. The scheduled capacity is now at 54.3 million seats – a recovery of 5% per week since the beginning of May. Still, there is a long way to the full recovery of more than 100 million seats scheduled during the northern summer of 2019.

Europe is now in the driver’s seats to lead the world’s recovery.

We continue to monitor the data from the ch-aviation capacities module.

Asia, which was the first region to bring optimism to the industry, keeps bouncing up and down, but with a positive trend in the medium term. After a slight downturn last week, scheduled capacity jumped by 18% this week and now has 27.2 million seats’ capacity in the region. More than half of these seats (14.3 million) are scheduled in China’s domestic market, which also recorded the highest weekly number.

The second-largest region in the industry also continues the growth: airlines in North America now have 13.5 million seats scheduled to the depart in the current week. This is more than double from the lowest point – we saw less than 6 million seats scheduled in the middle of May. 10.9 million seats are scheduled in the domestic U.S. market.

Europe continues to lead industry growth. Again, airlines added more than 1 million seats to the market in the week, and for the first time after covid-19 started spreading, scheduled capacity jumped over the 10 million mark. The industry now has more than quadrupled compared to the lowest point at the end of April, when only 2.5 million seats were scheduled to depart European airports.

South America is still not gaining momentum. The number of scheduled seats remains below 1 million seats in this region – more than five times less than what it was in the middle of March. The number of international connectivity in South America remains at extremely low levels with less than 100,000 seats scheduled to depart airports in the region.

Africa continues a very slow-paced recovery – for the first time it jumped over 1 million scheduled seats mark. Interestingly, “Binter Canaries” is the airline now operating the largest number of seats in Africa (due to relatively large intra-Canaries operation). Domestic markets in mainland Africa are relatively small and the international travel limitations still do not allow the industry to take-off for faster recovery.

The recovery in Oceania stopped during the last week. Mainly driven by domestic markets (646,000 seats out of 735,000 total seats) the region’s capacity was growing constantly, but now that growth has frozen, possibly due to new travel limitations introduced in Australia. Australia is by far the largest market in the region with more than 50% capacity share currently.

We will continue to monitor the situation on capacities and will post on our blog. Follow us here and follow our #chaviationcovid19updates on Linkedin.

At ch-aviation we are tracking new aircraft deliveries of the largest aircraft manufacturers: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, COMAC, De Havilland, Embraer and Irkut.

New aircraft deliveries rose substantially in June. Manufacturers delivered 54 new aircraft to the airlines globally – that’s almost triple compared to May, when airlines delivered just 19 aircraft. The lowest point this year was April, when airlines were accepting only 15 deliveries.

Still, the numbers are far from last year’s results. A year before, in June 2019, manufacturers delivered 135 new aircraft, so this is a 60% decrease.

After almost drying up in April and May, deliveries are on a positive trend toward recovery.

The month of May showed a small sign of recovery for new aircraft deliveries, slightly higher compared to April, but deliveries jumped substantially in June.

May was the slowest month of new aircraft deliveries for Boeing, when the US manufacturer was able to deliver just 3 aircraft – all freighters. Cargo aircraft continue to dominate Boeing deliveries statistics: in June the manufacturer delivered 7 aircraft, with 4 of them freighters. “FedEx Express” took 3 deliveries (two B767-300Fs and one 777-200F) and “UPS Airlines” took one (B747-8F). Boeing was able to deliver two passenger Dreamliners – two B787-10s were taken by “British Airways.”

Airbus managed to deliver 32 aircraft in June — 41% of the number a year earlier. Airbus may see a lot of optimism looking forward as their numbers were growing both in May and June after going downhill in spring, when the COVID-19 pandemic spread.

Deliveries for “IndiGo Airlines” played an important role for Airbus deliveries in June as this airline took 7 aircraft in one month (mix of A320neo and A321neo).

When looking at grounded fleets and capacity developments toward recovery we see China, Hong Kong and Macao far ahead. The same goes with new aircraft deliveries.

The number of new deliveries in China, Hong Kong and Macao stopped when the region entered COVID-19. There were no new aircraft deliveries to airlines in China, Hong Kong and Macao in February. After a small amount of activity in March and April, the region is on the path to recovery. Airlines accepted 9 brand-new aircraft in June with 6 of them being locally manufactured ARJ21-700s. Airbus managed to deliver three Airbus A320NEO aircraft – two went to “China Southern Airlines” and one to “China Express Airlines.”

Asia is an important region for the new aircraft deliveries – 42% of all deliveries went to this continent in 2019.

We used ch-aviation fleets advanced for this analysis.

Follow our blog and our LinkedIn page for the latest data extracts on #chaviationcovid19updates.

55% of fleets grounded in the beginning of April.
59% of fleets grounded at the end of April.
57% of fleets grounded at the beginning May.
55% of fleets grounded the end of May.
54% of fleets grounded in the beginning of June.
51% of fleets grounded in the end of June.
46% of fleets grounded in the beginning of July

We continue to see a path to recovery. One month ago 54% of airline fleets were grounded, but now this number stands at 46%. That’s less than half of fleets on the ground for storage or maintenance.

This trend also confirms what we see in airlines’ scheduled capacities. We saw during the last month airlines re-activated more than 2,500 aircraft – more than 80 aircraft per day on average.

We expect to see even more aircraft being reactivated in July when many airlines resume flying.

If in May we saw the most aircraft re-activations in Asia, in June Europe took the crown: airlines took more than 1,000 aircraft back to the skies from storage or maintenance, representing an improvement of 13 percentage points. Still, more than half of the fleets in Europe remain grounded: airlines still have more than 3,500 aircraft in storage.

Asia kept the lead in the smallest percentage of groundings. From 52% in the beginning of April, 50% at the end of April, 48% in the beginning of May, 45% at the end of May, and 42% in the beginning of June, now it’s recovered to 37% of the fleets grounded in the region. Airlines took 589 aircraft back to the active operation in Asia during the last month – we saw similar levels of re-activation two weeks ago when we looked at these numbers in the beginning of June.

North America is trying to catch up with recovery too, with 778 aircraft reactivated during the last 4 weeks. Now just 40% of the aircraft are non-active among North American airlines.

Smaller regions are behaving differently: While Oceania has just 45% of its fleets grounded, the regions of South America and Africa remain negative leaders, with almost two-thirds of the fleet on the ground.

Active Total %, grounded
Africa 570 1,560 63%
Asia 7,128 11,363 37%
Europe 3,499 8,234 58%
North America 6,046 10,119 40%
Oceania 521 955 45%
South America 503 1,451 65%

We also looked at the TOP10 countries with the highest percentage of active fleets. We excluded countries with less than 10 active aircraft and we see now 4 countries operating with more than 80% of active fleets: Seychelles, New Caledonia, Viet Nam and China. A month ago, only Seychelles and China reached this milestone.

We can also see the 2 European countries made TOP10: Hungary and Luxembourg. Hungary’s high performance can be explained by one of the leading ultra-low-cost airlines activities throughout Europe. In Luxembourg, almost half of the aircraft registered there are freighters which have way more activity worldwide compared to passenger aircraft.

Active Total %, active
Seychelles 11 12 92%
New Caledonia 11 13 85%
Viet Nam 196 237 83%
China 3,374 4,161 81%
Hungary 105 134 78%
Taiwan (Province of China) 182 233 78%
Japan 571 738 77%
Guadeloupe 12 16 75%
Papua New Guinea 45 60 75%
Luxembourg 44 59 75%

We also looked at the TOP10 countries with the highest percentage of grounded fleets by airline. We see the recovery levels vary in different countries. Still, we no longer see any country with single digits of active aircraft.

We see Panama “leading” this list negatively with only 13 aircraft being active among 125 aircraft total registered in the country. This may be explained by the decision of the leading carrier of the country, “COPA Airlines,” to suspend operations until August 7.

Active Total %, active
Panama 13 125 10%
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 10 89 11%
Austria 36 292 12%
Nigeria 22 134 16%
Maldives 16 93 17%
Czechia 14 65 22%
Oman 17 77 22%
Portugal 34 149 23%
Argentina 28 122 23%
Libya 14 61 23%

We use ch-aviation fleets advanced data for this analysis. Our fleet team works to deliver the latest updates on airline commercial fleets globally.

We continue to monitor scheduled capacity from airlines around the world. Last week we wrote that the capacity growth is not gaining momentum, but this week this is not the case any more. The last week of June brought massive 20% capacity growth worldwide. Yes, it is still below 50% of “normal capacity” at this time of the year, but this may lead toward a paced recovery this industry is waiting for.

The total number of seats scheduled for the current week jumped to 48.4 million seats – up by 8 million seats compared to what airlines scheduled for the week earlier. It will be interesting to see if this fast-paced recovery will continue growing into the Northern Hemisphere summer.

We continue to monitor the data from the ch-aviation capacities module.

Asia was the first region that brought optimism to the industry, but the last few weeks were quite bouncy for capacity numbers. The last week of June brought back growth – capacity is up by 15% compared to the week before. Now, the capacity stands at 26.5 million weekly seats. This is the closest to the “normal” level from all the regions where we saw around 40 million seats last year around this time.

When trying to understand Asia, we separately look to the Chinese domestic market, which on one hand consists of half of all the Asian capacity and on the other hand was the first market to recover post-covid19. Last week we saw a drop in scheduled capacity mainly due to new limitations introduced for flights from Beijing after number of Covid-19 cases increased. This week the capacity bounced back almost to the top of the “new normal.”

Airlines in North America continue to grow capacity every week. If the month of May was flat with record-bottom numbers, the industry is now recovering and for the first time jumped to over 10 million scheduled seats for the current week. This is more than 1 million seats growth in one week – the capacity jumped by 15%.

But the real star in terms of capacity growth this week is third-largest region for the industry – Europe. Airlines added 45% more seats for this week’s schedules compared to the week before. The market size now stands at 8.5 million seats – triple that of the lowest point of 2.5 million seats. Still, there is a long way to the real recovery – the industry lacks more than 10 million seats in the schedules. We expected further growth in upcoming weeks as many airlines resumed flights starting July 1 and many countries reduces travel limitations for the new month.

Percentage-wise South America actually was the region that outgrow other parts of the world this week. Airlines added almost 60% more seats in the current’s week schedules, but that is still less then 1 million seats scheduled to depart South American airports. This region was the most heavily impacted by the current crisis and it may take a lot of time to recover even at high-paced growth.

Airlines also managed to grow the capacity in African countries. After reductions the week before, airlines added more seats for the current week. We will continue to monitor further the capacity trends in this region.

The recovery in Oceania started earlier than in the other small regions (in terms of airline market size) of Africa and South America. Airlines grew the capacity mainly in domestic markets in this region. Compared to the summer peak kicking off in Europe and North America, winter has just started in this part of the world, making recovery even more difficult.

We will continue to monitor the situation on capacities and will post on our blog. Follow us here and follow our #chaviationcovid19updates on Linkedin.

We continue to monitor scheduled capacity from airlines around the world. The industry continues its path to recovery as the number of seats increase slightly — but growth is not gaining any momentum yet.

The total number of seats scheduled for the current week is 40.2 million. This is up more than 10 million from the lowest point the industry reached in the beginning of May – 30.8 million. Still, the average growth rate for last few weeks is 3.6% a week, so the industry will not rise quickly without gaining momentum on different continents.

We continue to monitor the data from the ch-aviation capacities module.

Asia is the region for optimism, but the last 4 weeks of variation in capacity there shows the recovery is far from “V” shape. There are 22.9 million seats scheduled to depart in Asia this week – less than it was 4 weeks before. The market remains almost half the size what we consider to be “normal.”

Half of the seats in Asia currently are scheduled in China, which is driving all the region’s market growth. After the constant growth of domestic seats from China, this week we see a drop in scheduled capacity mainly due to new limitations introduced for flights from Beijing after number of COVID-19 cases increased.

Airlines in North America are growing capacity week by week. After the month of May, which remained almost flat with record-bottom numbers, now airlines changed their path and are adding more flights every week. The market now stands at 9.4 million scheduled seats.

In Europe, we noticed a few times in our previous analysis that the airlines were too optimistic for the month of June. Airlines waited for the last minute to remove flights from their schedules for June and now we see quite a significant drop. With constant growth every week in June with more capacity added, we are curious how the development in July will look like. Europe is the most seasonal market in the world so July-August summer peak will show the market demand pattern.

The capacity trends in the three smaller regions (South America, Africa and Oceania) are similar – the bottom is found and, as of now, it stays there. Airlines in South America now have just 11% of seats scheduled compared to the middle of March. This region as of now is the most heavily impacted by the COVID-19 crisis.

Africa got a slight decrease in scheduled seats. The region is not showing any signs in traffic recovery based on scheduled capacity and still stays at low levels.

There is more recovery visible in Oceania, compared to other (relatively) small regions of Africa and South America. Airlines jumped over the half-million scheduled seats mark, mainly driven by domestic market recovery. Compared to the summer peak kicking in Europe and North America, winter just started in this part of the world, making recovery even more difficult.

We will continue to monitor the situation on capacities and will post on our blog. Follow us here and follow our #chaviationcovid19updates on Linkedin.

At ch-aviation we are tracking new aircraft deliveries of the largest aircraft manufacturers: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, COMAC, De Havilland, Embraer and Irkut.

New aircraft deliveries almost dried up in April, when we saw just 15 aircraft delivered by all manufacturers. In May, there was a small sign of recovery – 19 brand-new aircraft were delivered globally.

Still, the impact of Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic remain significant. Last year there were 133 aircraft delivered in the month of May.

We saw the first signs of aircraft deliveries being hit in February:

The first two months are usually slower for the airlines, but March to June usually is a very busy stretch both for manufacturers and airlines. With the COVID-19 pandemic we saw new aircraft deliveries went down, but the month of May was slightly better than April for manufacturers.

Boeing deliveries last spring were hit by the grounding of Boeing 737MAX aircraft, but that now looks like a breeze for Boeing compared to this year’s numbers. Boeing deliveries went even further down in May – the U.S. manufacturer delivered just 3 new aircraft. Boeing hasn’t delivered any aircraft in passenger configuration – 2 777s for “China Southern Airlines” and 1 B767-300 for “UPS Airlines” were delivered as freighters.

Airbus in February still had a quite positive month with more deliveries than the year before (mainly due to more Airbus A220 deliveries). When the global pandemic spread, new aircraft deliveries by the European manufacturer went downhill, but May brought some optimism. Airbus delivered 15 new aircraft to its customers, including a of types and airlines – from the smallest (A220-300 for “Air Canada”) to the largest (A350-1000 for “British Airways”).

When looking at grounded fleets and capacity developments toward recovery we see China, Hong Kong and Macao far ahead. The same goes with new aircraft deliveries.

The number of new deliveries in China, Hong Kong and Macao stopped when the region entered COVID-19. There were no new aircraft deliveries to airlines in China, Hong Kong and Macao in February. There was one delivery each month in March and April 2020, but the month of May brought some optimism: airlines accepted 6 aircraft during the month. It is less than half what manufacturers delivered the same month of last year, but it is some sign of recovery. It is important to note half of the deliveries were taken by “China Southern Airlines” which took 2 777-200Fs from “Boeing” and one A320NEO from “Airbus”.

Asia is an important region for the new aircraft deliveries – 42% of all deliveries went to this continent in 2019.

We used ch-aviation fleets advanced for this analysis.

Follow our blog and our LinkedIn page for the latest data extracts on #chaviationcovid19updates.

Earlier this year ch-aviation teamed up with Collateral Verifications to provide aircraft valuation data for ch-aviation fleets ownership subscribers. With the latest update, we analysed the trends of aircraft value data by aircraft type.

“Collateral Verifications” valuation methodology and approach during covid-10 crisis for market values:

1. During the initial period of this crisis, it has been and will be difficult to ascertain the current value trends based on the lack of available transaction data points to review for both new and used aircraft. It is also our understanding that many of the transactions taking place had already been in work prior to the crisis and may not be reflective of the current market conditions.

2. In order to capture some of the aircraft valuation trends, there are factors that can be analysed to provide certain indications of the potential value declines for each aircraft type.
a. Pricing adjustments for aircraft listed as available for sale and/or lease
b. Airline Credit Risk
c. Monthly Lease Rate Changes
d. Residual Value Adjustments

3. As many financial institutions and investors use these factors to determine the overall lease-encumbered value of an aircraft, these can also be used as indicators to determine the potential adjustments to aircraft values in the current environment.

4. As more trading data becomes available, these value trends will continue to be verified and adjusted as needed to ensure that our values reflect the current market conditions.

At least, there’s a trend of recovery instead of further groundings.

Current Market Value Trends

We see that the average aircraft monitored by Collateral Verifications saw an 11% value reduction since the beginning of 2020. This is a significant drop in aircraft values during this unprecedented crisis for the industry. We saw up to 59% of the total commercial aircraft being grounded during the peak of this pandemic at the end of April.

We looked at what aircraft types and build years had the highest adjustments in values. Values of these aircraft reduced the most post-covid19 compared pre-crisis and the current levels. These aircraft types lost a quarter of their value since the beginning of 2020:

Manufacturer Model Post Crisis Adjustment
Boeing 717-200 Up to -32%
Boeing 737-300 Up to -25%
Boeing 737-400 Up to -25%
Boeing 737-500 Up to -26%
Boeing 737-800 Up to -27%
Boeing 737-900 Up to -30%
Boeing 767-300(ER) Up to -27%
Airbus A320-200 Up to -30%
Airbus A330-300 Up to -29%
Airbus A380-800 Up to -27%

We grouped the aircraft types and checked types that lost 15% or more of their value and compared to aircraft groundings during the pandemic based on ch-aviation fleets advanced data:

Model Build Year Avg. Value adjustment No of aircraft in the market % grounded
717-200 1999-2006 -32% 142 52%
737-500 1989-1999 -26% 151 62%
737-400 1989-1999 -25% 140 77%
737-300 1984-1999 -24% 214 70%
737-900 2001-2008 -22% 52 62%
A330-300 1993-2020 -22% 680 52%
A380-800 2007-2019 -22% 230 98%
737-800 1998-2019 -18% 4823 49%
777-300(ER) 2007-2020 -18% 812 30%
A319-100 1996-2019 -18% 1217 58%
ERJ-135LR/ER 1999-2008 -18% 89 55%
767-300(ER) 1986-2013 -17% 341 65%
777-300 1997-2006 -17% 51 66%
A320-200 1994-2020 -16% 4126 64%

The Boeing 717-200 is the most affected type, losing almost one-third of its value during this crisis.

Boeing 737 Classics also lost a significant part of their values. B737-300s, B737-400s and B737-500s lost about quarter of their value.

Boeing 737NGs also made the list. Boeing 737-800s lost 18% of value during the pandemic, but the valuation dropped differently by the age of aircraft. Early builds of Boeing 737-800s manufactured from 1998 to 2000 lost about 27% of their value, while new builds (2016 and beyond) lost only about 12%. Boeing 737-900s lost 22% of average value while newer Boeing 737-900(ER)s lost 15%. Looking at the values on a timeline, we see older aircraft losing more compared to the latest builds of 737-900ER – a similar trend as its smaller brother, the 737-800.

Airbus A380-800s lost 22% on average, with late builds losing more than early builds (in %). The 380 as an aircraft type lost the most in absolute numbers (millions of dollars).

Similar trends apply to B767-300(ER)s, where aircraft manufactured from 1986 to 1996 lost 27% while builds in 2008-2009 lost just 5.5% of value.

Airbus A320 family values differ based on the equipment type. A319s lost 18% of their value, while A320s lost 17% and A321s lost 14% on average. What do A319s and A320s have in common? The oldest and youngest aircraft lost less, while aircraft produced between 2005 and 2015 lost the most. Looking at Airbus A321s, older manufactured units lost more value while newer ones lost less.

Boeing 777-300s saw a 17% reduction in values, while its younger brother, the 777-300(ER), lost even more – 18%. Looking at the values of 777-300(ER) we see aircraft built 2003-2004 and 2013-2016 lost more than 20% while aircraft manufactured in other periods lost less.

ERJ-135 values decreased by 18%. Older builds lost more while the very latest manufactured units in 2008 lost just 9% of their value.

We also looked at the brand-new aircraft list. Aircraft of these types lost 10% or more when manufactured in 2020:

Manufacturer Equip Type Post Crisis Adjustment
Airbus A380-800 -24%
Bombardier CRJ-900ER -13%
Boeing 777-300(ER) -13%
Airbus A330-300 -11%
Airbus A330-200 -11%
Embraer Embraer 190E2 -10%
Embraer Embraer 195E2 -10%
Airbus A220-100 -10%
Airbus A220-300 -10%

Did all aircraft types lose value during covid-19? No!

The following aircraft types received positive adjustment in the post-covid19 world:

Manufacturer Equip Type Build Year Post Crisis % Adj.
Boeing 747-8F 2020 +13,6%
Boeing 767-300F 2012-2018 +10,1%
Boeing 747-8F 2018-2019 +6,5%
Boeing 767-300F 2009-2011 +6,5%
Boeing 747-8F 2017 +5,4%
Boeing 767-300F 2008 +4,2%
Boeing 747-8F 2016 +3,1%
Boeing 737-300F 1984-1999 +2,9%
Boeing 737-400F 1988-1999 +2,9%
Boeing 747-8F 2015 +2,1%
Boeing 747-8F 2014 +1,0%
Airbus A330-200F 2020 +0,5%
Boeing 777-200F 2020 +0,5%

What do these types have in common? They all have an F in the end, which means it is designed to carry freight, not passengers.

ch-aviation fleets ownership subscribers have instant access to aircraft valuation data with current market values and market lease rates provided tail by tail for a wide range of commercial aircraft from 30-seat turboprops to the Airbus A380. ch-aviation also provides total values of the owned fleet for airlines or total value of lessor portfolios.

55% of fleets grounded in the beginning of April.
59% of fleets grounded at the end of April.
57% of fleets grounded at the beginning May.
55% of fleets grounded the end of May.
54% of fleets grounded in the beginning of June.

We continue to see the path to recovery, even at a slow pace. We analysed the fleets advanced data and we now see 54% of fleets are grounded worldwide. That’s 1 percentage-point less than the analysis we did two weeks ago.

This trend also confirms what we see in airlines’ scheduled capacities. We saw during the last two weeks that airlines re-activated 1,117 aircraft – almost 80 aircraft per day on average.

The number of aircraft grounded does not fully represent the full picture as many airlines reduce utilisation to a minimum to avoid storing aircraft.

More than half of re-activated aircraft have returned to the skies in Asia. Airlines took 583 aircraft back from storage or maintenance, representing a 3% improvement. Asia remains the leading region in this recovery. From 52% of the groundings in the beginning of April, 50% at the end of April, 48% in the beginning of May, and 45% at the end of May, now it’s recovered to 42% of the fleets grounded in the region.

North America and Europe tried to catch up with the recovery trend. Both regions returned more aircraft to the service in last two weeks: North America has 276 fewer units in storage than two weeks ago while Europe saw 158 fewer aircraft on the ground.

Active Total %, grounded
Africa 489 1,569 69%
Asia 6,539 11,367 42%
Europe 2,421 8,283 71%
North America 5,268 10,125 48%
Oceania 479 957 50%
South America 450 1,461 69%

This week we also looked more closely at the percentage of groundings by country. Here are the TOP10 countries around the world with the highest percentage of active aircraft. We excluded countries with less than 10 aircraft registered in the country.

We see large markets like China, Japan and Vietnam being in this TOP10 list — these countries are helping Asia be one of the most active regions these days.

Active Total %, active
Seychelles 10 12 83%
China 3,353 4,152 81%
Taiwan (Province of China) 184 233 79%
New Caledonia 10 13 77%
Congo (the Democratic Republic of the) 31 41 76%
Japan 530 742 71%
Papua New Guinea 42 60 70%
Vietnam 161 237 68%
Myanmar 32 49 65%
Brunei Darussalam 11 17 65%

We also looked at the TOP10 countries with the highest percentage of grounded fleets by airline. We see the recovery levels vary in different countries. All TOP10 countries with the highest number of aircraft grounded have less than 20% of aircraft in the skies (while leading markets now have less than 20% of aircraft left grounded).

We see Austria “leading” this list negatively with only 10 aircraft being active from 297 aircraft total registered in the country. This may be explained by the TOP3 largest carriers in the country (easyJet Europe, Austrian and LAUDA) are not operating as of the date of this analysis. Positively, all three are planning return to service in June, so the future is strongly optimistic.

Active Total %, active
Austria 10 297 3%
Panama 12 124 10%
Oman 11 80 14%
South Africa 35 254 14%
Turkey 87 618 14%
Poland 34 194 18%
Malta 38 213 18%
Nigeria 24 134 18%
Libya 12 62 19%
Portugal 29 148 20%

We use ch-aviation fleets advanced data for this analysis. Our fleet team works to deliver the latest updates on airline commercial fleets globally.