Following up on the news about FAA bans US carriers from overflying Iran, Iraq, the Gulf, we have looked at some data from the ch-aviation capacities module to understand possible impacts on the industry.

Quick reminder: the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued three Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs) barring American civilian carriers from overflying Iraq, Iran, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman at any level. The FAA issued the ban “due to heightened military activities and increased political tensions in the Middle East, which present an inadvertent risk to US civil aviation operations,” following a night of Iranian rocket strikes on US military bases in Iraq.

We have, however, detected that no flights to the USA or flights operated by US carriers were scheduled to Iran or Iraq for the upcoming week 13.01. – 19.01.2020.

81% of the scheduled flights in Iran (21% in Iraq) next week of January are domestic flights, but we have filtered some interesting information out of more than 1,000 scheduled international flights that could be affected by the current situation. Here you can find them filtered by capacity and listed as countries, airlines, and airports:

FLIGHTS FROM IRAN

The total number of international flights scheduled for the next week (13.01.-19.01.) from Iran is 479. Of this number, the most affected flights are to these countries:

IRAN INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS NUMBER OF SEATS OFFERED
1. Turkey, TR 28.718
2. United Arab Emirates (the), AE 17.108
3. Iraq, IQ 10.286
4. Qatar, QA 9.229
5. China, CN 4.633
6. Germany, DE 3.333
7. Oman, OM 3.297
8. Kuwait, KW 3.218
9. Armenia, AM 2.100
10. Austria, AT 1.690

When it comes to the Airlines, the domestic ones are surely and highly affected – Mahan Air & Iran air. following with Turkish Airlines, Qatar Airways, Iraqi Airways, Emirates, flydubai, AtlasGlobal, and Air Arabia. Caspian Airlines, another domestic company, finishes the list of top 10.

MOST AFFECTED AIRLINES NUMBER OF SEATS OFFERED
1. Mahan Air 28.772
2. Iran Air 14.369
3. Turkish Airlines 9.271
4. Qatar Airways 8.317
5. Iraqi Airways 5.174
6. Emirates 4.852
7. flydubai 3.531
8. AtlasGlobal 3.027
9. Air Arabia 3.024
10. Caspian Airlines 2.952

TOP 10 airports that are most likely to be affected with possible limitations from Iran in the upcoming week:

MOST AFFECTED AIRPORT NUMBER OF SEATS OFFERED
1. Istanbul New (IST), TR 23.547
2. Dubai Int’I (DOH), QA 14.084
3. Doha Hamad Int’I (DOH), QA 9.229
4. Najaf (NFJ), IQ 4.798
5. Baghdad (BGW), IQ 3.350
6. Muscat (MCT), OM 3.297
7. Kuwait (KWI), KW 3.182
8. Sharjah (SHJ), AE 3.024
9. Frankfurt Int’I (FRA), DE 2.619
10. Yerevan (EVN), AM 2.100

FLIGHTS FROM IRAQ

The total number of international flights scheduled for next week from Iraq is 670. Here are potentially the most affected countries, with Turkey leading the capacity of 33.094 seats offered.

IRAQ INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS NUMBER OF SEATS OFFERED
1. Turkey, TR 33.094
2. United Arab Emirates (the), AE 14.579
3. Qatar, QA 10.304
4. Iran (Islamic Republic of), IR 9.842
5. Jordan, JO 6.527
6. Lebanon, LB 6.018
7. Saudi Arabia, SA 4.178
8. Syrian Arab Republic (the), SY 3.320
9. Egypt, EG 3.275
10. Bahrain, BH 2.407

Three out of 10 of the most affected airlines are domestic, followed by, as expected, Turkish and Qatar Airways.

MOST AFFECTED AIRLINES NUMBER OF SEATS OFFERED
1. Iraqi Airways 29.713
2. Turkish Airlines 11.203
3. Qatar Airways 10.304
4. Fly Baghdad 9.238
5. flydubai 5.439
6. Pegasus Airlines 5.049
7. Emirates 4.196
8. AtlasGlobal 4.047
9. Royal Jordanian 3.583
10. UR Airlines 3.108

If limitations lead to an increased number of canceled flights from Iraq the following airports may be most affected, with Istanbul at the top of the list.

MOST AFFECTED AIRPORT NUMBER OF SEATS OFFERED
1. Istanbul New (IST), TR 18.883
2. Dubai Int’I (DOH), QA 12.227
3. Doha Hamad Int’I (DOH), QA 10.304
4. Istanbul Sabiha Gocken (SAW), TR 7.826
5. Amman Queen Alia (AMM), JO 6.527
6. Beirut (BEY), LB 6.018
7. Tehran Imam Khomeini (IKA), IR 5.643
8. Mashad (MHD), IR 3.693
9. Ankara Esenboga (ESB), TR 3.669
10. Damascus (DAM), SY 3.320
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